We and our partners use cookies and similar technologies in order to provide functionality.
Do you want to know more? Read our terms and our cookie-policy.

Menu
Start > Betting strategies > Kellys criterion

Kelly's criterion

Updated: about 40 minutes ago.

This strategy is probably the most popular and used among professional players and is based on mathematics instead of feeling and chances, which of course increases your chances of winning. When placing a bet there are many different things to consider, when it comes to Kelly's criterion there are three things, these are: how to place your bet, are the odds worth betting on? And what amount you should bet. So, first you need to choose how to distribute your money and then you need to decide how much to bet and if the odds are worth betting on. This strategy will help you calculate how much you should actually bet on a specific odds that is higher than expected, in other words - overvalued. If this goes your way, your money will grow significantly.

Learning this method is quite complicated and time consuming, therefore ArbIQ does the math for you and only shows the odds you have to bet on in order to use this method, as well how you should distribute your bets by percentage. Now beginners can also use this strategy because we at ArbIQ does everything for you. All you must do is place your bets.

Total bankroll (amount to bet):

Amount set:

MMA | Amanda Nunes - Julianna Pena
Home team: Amanda Nunes
Date & time: 2021-08-08 03:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
2: 6.7 @ NordicBet16.7%10.62%2.09%0
NRL | Brisbane Broncos - South Sydney Rabbitohs
Home team: Brisbane Broncos
Date & time: 2021-06-17 09:50
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
1: 6.8 @ Betfair16.55%11.17%2.16%0
NFL | Buffalo Bills - Pittsburgh Steelers
Home team: Buffalo Bills
Date & time: 2021-09-12 17:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
2: 3.35 @ GTbets33.57%11.07%5.3%0
2: 3.4 @ BetOnline33.57%12.38%5.89%0
2: 3.4 @ Lowvig33.57%12.38%5.89%0
2: 3.4 @ William Hill (US)33.57%12.38%5.89%0
EPL | Chelsea - Crystal Palace
Home team: Chelsea
Date & time: 2021-08-14 14:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
2: 13 @ Sky Bet9.55%19.45%2.01%0
MLB | Chicago White Sox - Tampa Bay Rays
Home team: Chicago White Sox
Date & time: 2021-06-16 18:12
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
2: 6.75 @ Barstool16.74%11.5%2.26%0
2: 6.8 @ Betway16.74%12.15%2.38%0
2: 7 @ BetMGM16.74%14.66%2.86%0
2: 7.1 @ PointsBet (US)16.74%15.86%3.09%0
2: 7.5 @ Unibet16.74%20.35%3.93%0
2: 7.5 @ Foxbet16.74%20.35%3.93%0
2: 7.8 @ Matchbook16.74%23.42%4.5%0
2: 7.8 @ Betfair16.74%23.42%4.5%0
2: 8.01 @ Pinnacle16.74%25.42%4.86%0
NFL | Detroit Lions - San Francisco 49ers
Home team: Detroit Lions
Date & time: 2021-09-12 17:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
1: 4.1 @ PointsBet (AU)27.57%11.54%4.21%0
1: 4.1 @ Betway27.57%11.54%4.21%0
1: 4.1 @ PointsBet (US)27.57%11.54%4.21%0
1: 4.1 @ BetMGM27.57%11.54%4.21%0
1: 4.15 @ Marathonbet27.57%12.61%4.58%0
1: 4.2 @ MyBookie27.57%13.65%4.94%0
1: 4.2 @ GTbets27.57%13.65%4.94%0
1: 4.25 @ BetOnline27.57%14.67%5.28%0
1: 4.25 @ Lowvig27.57%14.67%5.28%0
1: 4.3 @ William Hill (US)27.57%15.66%5.62%0
UEFA Euro 2020 | England - Scotland
Home team: England
Date & time: 2021-06-18 19:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
2: 12 @ Betfair9.5%12.31%1.27%0
2: 12 @ Orbitx9.5%12.31%1.27%0
EPL | Everton - Southampton
Home team: Everton
Date & time: 2021-08-14 14:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
2: 4.52 @ 1xBet26.13%15.32%5.14%0
2: 4.52 @ 22BET26.13%15.32%5.14%0
2: 4.52 @ 1xBit26.13%15.32%5.14%0
UEFA Euro 2020 | Belgium - Finland
Home team: Finland
Date & time: 2021-06-21 19:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
2: 15.5 @ Marathonbet7.33%11.94%0.94%0
UEFA Euro 2020 | Germany - Hungary
Home team: Germany
Date & time: 2021-06-23 19:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
2: 17 @ Ladbrokes7.05%16.54%1.24%0
2: 17 @ Betstar7.05%16.54%1.24%0
2: 17 @ Ladbrokes.au7.05%16.54%1.24%0
2: 17 @ NEDS7.05%16.54%1.24%0
Veikkausliiga - Finland | HJK Helsinki - Ilves Tampere
Home team: HJK Helsinki
Date & time: 2021-06-18 15:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
2: 8.4 @ Betfair13.29%10.41%1.57%0
2: 8.4 @ Orbitx13.29%10.41%1.57%0
2: 8.46 @ Pinnacle13.29%11.04%1.67%0
2: 8.46 @ Piwi13.29%11.04%1.67%0
2: 8.5 @ William Hill (US)13.29%11.46%1.73%0
UEFA Euro 2020 | France - Hungary
Home team: Hungary
Date & time: 2021-06-19 13:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
2: 12.5 @ Betfair9.1%12.13%1.2%0
2: 12.5 @ Orbitx9.1%12.13%1.2%0
Test Matches | India - New Zealand
Home team: India
Date & time: 2021-06-18 09:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
1: 3.2 @ Betfair36.02%13.24%6.94%0
1: 3.2 @ Orbitx36.02%13.24%6.94%0
NCAAF | Indiana Hoosiers - Iowa Hawkeyes
Home team: Iowa Hawkeyes
Date & time: 2021-09-04 18:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
1: 3.1 @ Bovada36.46%11.52%6.2%0
Brazil Série A | Juventude - Palmeiras
Home team: Juventude
Date & time: 2021-06-17 00:30
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
1: 5.7 @ Betfair19.98%12.19%2.95%0
1: 5.7 @ Orbitx19.98%12.19%2.95%0
MLB | Detroit Tigers - Kansas City Royals
Home team: Kansas City Royals
Date & time: 2021-06-16 18:10
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
1: 1.91 @ Foxbet72.12%27.4%41.48%0
1: 1.98 @ Pinnacle72.12%29.97%43.67%0
1: 2.02 @ Betfair72.12%31.36%44.79%0
2: 3.28 @ GTbets33.99%10.31%5.04%0
2: 3.32 @ Matchbook33.99%11.39%5.54%0
2: 3.4 @ BetMGM33.99%13.48%6.49%0
2: 3.4 @ FanDuel33.99%13.48%6.49%0
2: 3.85 @ Unibet33.99%23.59%10.83%0
2: 3.9 @ BetRivers33.99%24.57%11.23%0
2: 3.9 @ Sugarhouse33.99%24.57%11.23%0
2: 3.9 @ Barstool33.99%24.57%11.23%0
2: 3.9 @ DraftKings33.99%24.57%11.23%0
J League | Kashima Antlers - Vegalta Sendai
Home team: Kashima Antlers
Date & time: 2021-06-20 08:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
2: 5.82 @ Pinnacle19.09%10%2.3%0
2: 5.82 @ Piwi19.09%10%2.3%0
EPL | Leicester City - Wolverhampton Wanderers
Home team: Leicester City
Date & time: 2021-08-14 14:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
1: 2 @ Ladbrokes59.62%16.13%19.24%0
1: 2 @ Betstar59.62%16.13%19.24%0
1: 2 @ Ladbrokes.au59.62%16.13%19.24%0
1: 2 @ NEDS59.62%16.13%19.24%0
2: 5.76 @ Barstool19.3%10.03%2.35%0
2: 5.76 @ 888Sport19.3%10.03%2.35%0
2: 5.76 @ Sugarhouse19.3%10.03%2.35%0
2: 5.76 @ BetRivers19.3%10.03%2.35%0
2: 5.76 @ Mybet19.3%10.03%2.35%0
2: 5.76 @ Betplay19.3%10.03%2.35%0
2: 5.76 @ MrGreen19.3%10.03%2.35%0
2: 5.76 @ Leovegas19.3%10.03%2.35%0
2: 5.76 @ Unibet19.3%10.03%2.35%0
2: 5.76 @ DraftKings19.3%10.03%2.35%0
2: 5.85 @ Pinnacle19.3%11.41%2.66%0
2: 5.85 @ Piwi19.3%11.41%2.66%0
2: 5.85 @ Expekt19.3%11.41%2.66%0
2: 5.85 @ Betclic19.3%11.41%2.66%0
2: 6 @ William Hill19.3%13.63%3.16%0
2: 6.25 @ William Hill (US)19.3%17.08%3.93%0
MLS | Houston Dynamo - Los Angeles FC
Home team: Los Angeles FC
Date & time: 2021-06-20 03:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
1: 8.4 @ Matchbook13.32%10.65%1.61%0
1: 8.5 @ Intertops13.32%11.7%1.76%0
1: 8.5 @ William Hill (US)13.32%11.7%1.76%0
1: 8.6 @ Betfair13.32%12.73%1.91%0
1: 8.6 @ Orbitx13.32%12.73%1.91%0
1: 8.69 @ Pinnacle13.32%13.63%2.05%0
1: 8.69 @ Piwi13.32%13.63%2.05%0
NFL | Chicago Bears - Los Angeles Rams
Home team: Los Angeles Rams
Date & time: 2021-09-13 00:20
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
1: 3.6 @ BetMGM30.97%10.29%4.42%0
1: 3.6 @ Betclic30.97%10.29%4.42%0
1: 3.68 @ Marathonbet30.97%12.24%5.21%0
1: 3.7 @ PointsBet (US)30.97%12.72%5.4%0
1: 3.7 @ PointsBet (AU)30.97%12.72%5.4%0
1: 3.7 @ Betway30.97%12.72%5.4%0
1: 3.75 @ MyBookie30.97%13.88%5.87%0
1: 3.75 @ GTbets30.97%13.88%5.87%0
1: 3.8 @ Bovada30.97%15.02%6.32%0
1: 3.8 @ BetOnline30.97%15.02%6.32%0
1: 3.8 @ Lowvig30.97%15.02%6.32%0
1: 3.85 @ William Hill (US)30.97%16.12%6.75%0
EPL | Leeds United - Manchester United
Home team: Manchester United
Date & time: 2021-08-14 14:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
1: 6 @ Unibet18.55%10.17%2.26%0
1: 6 @ Sugarhouse18.55%10.17%2.26%0
1: 6 @ Barstool18.55%10.17%2.26%0
1: 6 @ DraftKings18.55%10.17%2.26%0
1: 6 @ 888Sport18.55%10.17%2.26%0
1: 6 @ Mybet18.55%10.17%2.26%0
1: 6 @ Betplay18.55%10.17%2.26%0
1: 6 @ MrGreen18.55%10.17%2.26%0
1: 6 @ Leovegas18.55%10.17%2.26%0
1: 6 @ BetRivers18.55%10.17%2.26%0
MLB | Cincinnati Reds - Milwaukee Brewers
Home team: Milwaukee Brewers
Date & time: 2021-06-16 18:10
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
2: 3.45 @ PointsBet (US)32.26%10.14%4.61%0
UEFA Euro 2020 | Austria - Netherlands
Home team: Netherlands
Date & time: 2021-06-17 19:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
1: 6.6 @ Betfair17.02%10.98%2.2%0
1: 6.6 @ Orbitx17.02%10.98%2.2%0
1: 6.6 @ Matchbook17.02%10.98%2.2%0
NHL | New York Islanders - Tampa Bay Lightning
Home team: New York Islanders
Date & time: 2021-06-18 00:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
2: 2.05 @ Betway55.16%11.56%12.46%0
2: 2.1 @ Betfred55.16%13.67%14.4%0
2: 2.18 @ 888Sport55.16%16.84%17.16%0
2: 2.15 @ Expekt55.16%15.68%16.17%0
2: 2.15 @ Betclic55.16%15.68%16.17%0
2: 2.15 @ Marathonbet55.16%15.68%16.17%0
2: 2.21 @ 1xBit55.16%17.97%18.1%0
2: 2.21 @ 22BET55.16%17.97%18.1%0
2: 2.21 @ 1xBet55.16%17.97%18.1%0
1: 2.75 @ Betway41.8%13%8.54%0
1: 2.9 @ 888Sport41.8%17.5%11.17%0
1: 3 @ Betfred41.8%20.25%12.7%0
1: 2.93 @ Marathonbet41.8%18.34%11.64%0
1: 3 @ Expekt41.8%20.25%12.7%0
1: 3 @ Betclic41.8%20.25%12.7%0
1: 3 @ 1xBit41.8%20.25%12.7%0
1: 3 @ 22BET41.8%20.25%12.7%0
1: 3 @ 1xBet41.8%20.25%12.7%0
UEFA Euro 2020 | Netherlands - North Macedonia
Home team: North Macedonia
Date & time: 2021-06-21 16:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
2: 17.5 @ Betfair6.68%14.48%1.02%0
2: 17.5 @ Orbitx6.68%14.48%1.02%0
AFL | Brisbane Lions - North Melbourne Kangaroos
Home team: North Melbourne Kangaroos
Date & time: 2021-06-19 06:35
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
2: 6.45 @ Marathonbet19.43%20.21%4.65%0
EPL | Liverpool - Norwich City
Home team: Norwich City
Date & time: 2021-08-14 14:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
2: 9.8 @ 1xBet12.13%15.89%2.14%0
2: 9.8 @ 22BET12.13%15.89%2.14%0
2: 9.8 @ 1xBit12.13%15.89%2.14%0
MLB | Los Angeles Angels - Oakland Athletics
Home team: Oakland Athletics
Date & time: 2021-06-16 19:37
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
2: 6.4 @ Betfair17.5%10.73%2.22%0
2: 7.32 @ Pinnacle17.5%21.95%4.45%0
NRL | Penrith Panthers - Sydney Roosters
Home team: Penrith Panthers
Date & time: 2021-06-18 09:55
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
2: 4.4 @ Betfair25.83%12.02%4.02%0
Eliteserien - Norway | Rosenborg - Sarpsborg FK
Home team: Rosenborg
Date & time: 2021-06-20 16:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
2: 9.8 @ 1xBet11.61%12.1%1.57%0
2: 9.8 @ 22BET11.61%12.1%1.57%0
2: 9.8 @ 1xBit11.61%12.1%1.57%0
Brazil Série A | Chapecoense - Sao Paulo
Home team: Sao Paulo
Date & time: 2021-06-16 22:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
1: 9.5 @ Foxbet12.07%12.79%1.73%0
1: 10 @ Betfair12.07%17.15%2.3%0
1: 10 @ Orbitx12.07%17.15%2.3%0
UEFA Euro 2020 | Poland - Spain
Home team: Spain
Date & time: 2021-06-19 19:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
1: 10 @ Betfair11.3%11.48%1.44%0
1: 10 @ Orbitx11.3%11.48%1.44%0
Brazil Série A | Gremio - Sport Recife
Home team: Sport Recife
Date & time: 2021-06-17 22:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
2: 4.2 @ Betfair26.58%10.42%3.64%0
2: 4.2 @ Orbitx26.58%10.42%3.64%0
NFL | Dallas Cowboys - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Home team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date & time: 2021-09-10 00:20
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
1: 3.4 @ BetOnline32.83%10.4%4.84%0
1: 3.4 @ Lowvig32.83%10.4%4.84%0
1: 3.4 @ Caesars32.83%10.4%4.84%0
1: 3.4 @ William Hill (US)32.83%10.4%4.84%0
1: 3.45 @ GTbets32.83%11.7%5.41%0
Eliteserien - Norway | Lillestrom - Tromso
Home team: Tromso
Date & time: 2021-06-20 16:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
1: 3 @ Sportsbet38.28%12.92%7.42%0
1: 3.1 @ Paddy Power38.28%15.73%8.89%0
1: 3.15 @ 888Sport38.28%17.07%9.57%0
1: 3.2 @ Unibet38.28%18.36%10.23%0
1: 3.2 @ Mybet38.28%18.36%10.23%0
1: 3.2 @ Betplay38.28%18.36%10.23%0
1: 3.2 @ Leovegas38.28%18.36%10.23%0
1: 3.2 @ MrGreen38.28%18.36%10.23%0
1: 3.25 @ DraftKings38.28%19.62%10.85%0
1: 3.25 @ BetRivers38.28%19.62%10.85%0
1: 3.25 @ Barstool38.28%19.62%10.85%0
1: 3.25 @ Sugarhouse38.28%19.62%10.85%0
1: 3.27 @ Expekt38.28%20.11%11.09%0
1: 3.27 @ Betclic38.28%20.11%11.09%0
1: 3.28 @ 22BET38.28%20.35%11.21%0
1: 3.28 @ 1xBit38.28%20.35%11.21%0
1: 3.28 @ 1xBet38.28%20.35%11.21%0
UEFA Euro 2020 | North Macedonia - Ukraine
Home team: Ukraine
Date & time: 2021-06-17 13:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
1: 6 @ Matchbook18.71%10.93%2.45%0
1: 6 @ Betfair18.71%10.93%2.45%0
1: 6 @ Orbitx18.71%10.93%2.45%0
K League 1 | Seongnam FC - Ulsan Hyundai FC
Home team: Ulsan Hyundai FC
Date & time: 2021-06-20 07:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
1: 6.89 @ Pinnacle16.35%11.21%2.15%0
1: 6.89 @ Piwi16.35%11.21%2.15%0
NBA | Los Angeles Clippers - Utah Jazz
Home team: Utah Jazz
Date & time: 2021-06-17 02:10
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
1: 4.15 @ Marathonbet27.24%11.53%4.14%0
Eliteserien - Norway | Bodø/Glimt - Vålerenga
Home team: Vålerenga
Date & time: 2021-06-20 18:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
2: 2.55 @ 888Sport45%12.85%9.52%0
2: 2.6 @ Betplay45%14.53%10.63%0
2: 2.6 @ Leovegas45%14.53%10.63%0
2: 2.6 @ MrGreen45%14.53%10.63%0
2: 2.6 @ Mybet45%14.53%10.63%0
2: 2.6 @ Unibet45%14.53%10.63%0
2: 2.63 @ DraftKings45%15.5%11.26%0
2: 2.63 @ Sugarhouse45%15.5%11.26%0
2: 2.63 @ BetRivers45%15.5%11.26%0
2: 2.63 @ Barstool45%15.5%11.26%0
2: 2.6 @ 1xBet45%14.53%10.63%0
2: 2.6 @ 1xBit45%14.53%10.63%0
2: 2.6 @ 22BET45%14.53%10.63%0
2: 2.65 @ Expekt45%16.14%11.67%0
2: 2.65 @ Betclic45%16.14%11.67%0
1: 2.6 @ Sugarhouse43.1%10.76%7.54%0
1: 2.6 @ DraftKings43.1%10.76%7.54%0
1: 2.6 @ BetRivers43.1%10.76%7.54%0
1: 2.6 @ Barstool43.1%10.76%7.54%0
1: 2.64 @ Expekt43.1%12.11%8.4%0
1: 2.64 @ Betclic43.1%12.11%8.4%0
1: 2.65 @ 1xBit43.1%12.44%8.62%0
1: 2.65 @ 22BET43.1%12.44%8.62%0
1: 2.65 @ 1xBet43.1%12.44%8.62%0
NHL | Montréal Canadiens - Vegas Golden Knights
Home team: Vegas Golden Knights
Date & time: 2021-06-17 01:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
2: 1.67 @ Betway69.96%14.41%25.12%0
2: 1.62 @ 888Sport69.96%11.77%21.51%0
2: 1.62 @ Expekt69.96%11.77%21.51%0
2: 1.62 @ Betclic69.96%11.77%21.51%0
2: 1.67 @ 1xBit69.96%14.41%25.12%0
2: 1.67 @ 22BET69.96%14.41%25.12%0
2: 1.67 @ 1xBet69.96%14.41%25.12%0
2: 1.69 @ Marathonbet69.96%15.42%26.42%0
1: 4.6 @ 888Sport28.01%22.38%8.01%0
1: 4.8 @ Betfred28.01%25.61%9.07%0
1: 4.78 @ 1xBit28.01%25.3%8.97%0
1: 4.78 @ 22BET28.01%25.3%8.97%0
1: 4.78 @ 1xBet28.01%25.3%8.97%0
1: 4.9 @ Expekt28.01%27.13%9.55%0
1: 4.9 @ Betclic28.01%27.13%9.55%0
1: 4.85 @ Marathonbet28.01%26.38%9.31%0
League of Ireland | Shamrock Rovers - Waterford FC
Home team: Waterford FC
Date & time: 2021-06-18 18:45
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
2: 12 @ Matchbook9.35%10.9%1.11%0
Test Matches | South Africa - West Indies
Home team: West Indies
Date & time: 2021-06-18 14:00
Odds:Probability of winning:Overvalued:Percent to bet:Amount to bet:
2: 4.1 @ Betfair27.41%11.02%3.99%0
2: 4.1 @ Orbitx27.41%11.02%3.99%0