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Valuebets are bets placed at odds that are higher than the actual probability of the market. The idea of valuebetes is simple and comes from the mathematical concept of Expected Value. Every time we make a bet we are always looking for value to be successful in the long term.
The odds at which we bet, with all bookmakers, align approximately with the real probabilities of that market. Of course, they then adjust the odds to give themselves a small margin.
For example, if the bookmaker had a 50% chance of winning, the odds would be $2.00, they would then adjust to add a margin for themselves. We would be left with odds like $1.90, so the bookmakers can earn more money than you.
So, we can deduce that the key to making money in betting is to know the real probability of an event and always bet with a bookmaker that offers odds higher than that probability. This would be a bet that has value, a so called valuebet.
For example, if the market had a 50% chance of winning, and the odds were $2.10 that would be a Value Bet. You are beating the probability and will earn money in in the long term.
If the bookmakers knew with 100% certainty the probability of an event the pre-match odds would never waver, it would be mathematically impossible to beat them. In the long run, we would always end up losing our money due to the margin or commission they charge.
Thankfully, sports betting odds are merely individual estimates made by each bookmaker. If we are able to calculate the true probabilities of markets better than the bookmakers, we can find miscalculations and inefficiencies in their odds, and profit.
Systematic and disciplined value betting is the key to beating the bookies and making consistent and long term profits in sports betting. Everyone who likes to bet should bet on valuebets. These odds are very hard to find on your own, but we at ArbIQ does that for you as a paying customer.
Free examples:
* probability of winning = the average implied probability.
* overvalued = overvalued compared to the average odds.
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